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Campeonato de Portugal · Portugal
AD Fazendense vs CF Marialvas
Full time: 1-2
Our pick
LostHT X2 (Draw/Away)
Chance
80%
Fair price
1.25
Take at least
1.32
- Our models: 80%.
- Expected goals: 2.5 (AD Fazendense 1.0, CF Marialvas 1.5).
- Fair price: 1.25. No bookmaker price yet: worth taking at 1.32 or more.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
AD Fazendense0.96
CF Marialvas1.53
Total 2.49 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 18% | 5.68 | 4.75 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | 3.70 |
| Away win | 59% | 1.69 | 1.57 |
| Home or draw | 49% | 2.03 | – |
| Draw or away | 76% | 1.31 | – |
| Home or away | 75% | 1.34 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.20 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 4.15 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.83 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Both teams score | 48% | 2.07 | – |
| Not both teams score | 52% | 1.93 | – |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.