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La Liga · Spain
Barcelona vs Real Madrid
Full time: 1-2
Our pick
WonOver 2.5
Chance
83%
Fair price
1.21
Best price found
1.17
- Bookmakers' combined chance, margin removed: 83% (4 bookmakers).
- Our models: 71% to 73%.
- Expected goals: 3.8 (Barcelona 2.3, Real Madrid 1.5).
- Fair price: 1.21. Best price found: 1.17.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
Barcelona2.30
Real Madrid1.49
Total 3.79 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 59% | 1.70 | 1.71 |
| Draw | 17% | 6.02 | 6.20 |
| Away win | 25% | 4.06 | 3.90 |
| Home or draw | 77% | 1.31 | 1.22 |
| Draw or away | 41% | 2.43 | 2.27 |
| Home or away | 82% | 1.21 | 1.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 1.21 | 1.17 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.53 | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 17% | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 35% | 2.88 | 2.63 |
| Both teams score | 77% | 1.30 | 1.24 |
| Not both teams score | 23% | 4.33 | 3.75 |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.