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Primeira Liga · Portugal
Estoril vs Moreirense
Full time: 1-3
Our pick
Lost1X (Home/Draw)
Chance
76%
Fair price
1.32
Best price found
1.23
- Bookmakers' combined chance, margin removed: 76% (5 bookmakers).
- Our models: 71% to 72%.
- Expected goals: 2.8 (Estoril 1.6, Moreirense 1.2).
- Fair price: 1.32. Best price found: 1.23.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
Estoril1.59
Moreirense1.18
Total 2.77 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 49% | 2.06 | 1.95 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | 3.49 |
| Away win | 25% | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| Home or draw | 76% | 1.32 | 1.23 |
| Draw or away | 51% | 1.96 | 1.83 |
| Home or away | 73% | 1.37 | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.34 | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.03 | 1.93 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 3.65 | 3.28 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.97 | 1.87 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.38 | 1.32 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 1.87 | 1.75 |
| Not both teams score | 47% | 2.14 | 1.98 |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.