← All predictions
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Nacional vs Sp Braga
Full time: 1-0
Our pick
WonUnder 4.5
Chance
85%
Fair price
1.17
Take at least
1.23
- Our models: 85%.
- Expected goals: 2.8 (Nacional 1.0, Sp Braga 1.8).
- Fair price: 1.17. No bookmaker price yet: worth taking at 1.23 or more.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
Nacional1.00
Sp Braga1.77
Total 2.77 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 21% | 4.68 | – |
| Draw | 23% | 4.33 | – |
| Away win | 56% | 1.80 | – |
| Home or draw | 44% | 2.25 | – |
| Draw or away | 79% | 1.27 | – |
| Home or away | 77% | 1.30 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.31 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.91 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 3.33 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.09 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 | – |
| Both teams score | 49% | 2.06 | 1.91 |
| Not both teams score | 51% | 1.95 | 1.81 |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.