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Serie B · Italy
Padova vs Sudtirol
Our pick
81% chanceUnder 3.5
Chance
81%
Fair price
1.23
Take at least
1.29
- Our models: 81%.
- Expected goals: 2.2 (Padova 1.2, Sudtirol 1.1).
- Fair price: 1.23. No bookmaker price yet: worth taking at 1.29 or more.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
Padova1.15
Sudtirol1.08
Total 2.23 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 41% | 2.44 | 2.31 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | 3.23 |
| Away win | 30% | 3.31 | 3.09 |
| Home or draw | 67% | 1.49 | – |
| Draw or away | 63% | 1.58 | – |
| Home or away | 69% | 1.44 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | 1.51 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.59 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 5.35 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.63 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 81% | 1.23 | – |
| Both teams score | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Not both teams score | 54% | 1.85 | – |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.