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Campeonato de Portugal · Portugal
União Desportiva da Serra vs At. Malveira
Full time: 1-1
Our pick
WonUnder 4.5
Chance
87%
Fair price
1.16
Take at least
1.21
- Our models: 86% to 87%.
- Expected goals: 2.7 (União Desportiva da Serra 1.6, At. Malveira 1.1).
- Fair price: 1.16. No bookmaker price yet: worth taking at 1.21 or more.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
União Desportiva da Serra1.62
At. Malveira1.06
Total 2.68 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 43% | 2.30 | 2.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | 3.25 |
| Away win | 30% | 3.39 | 3.00 |
| Home or draw | 75% | 1.33 | – |
| Draw or away | 50% | 2.02 | – |
| Home or away | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.34 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.99 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 3.55 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.01 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 | – |
| Both teams score | 52% | 1.91 | – |
| Not both teams score | 48% | 2.10 | – |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.