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Liga 3 · Portugal
Varzim vs Vitória SC B
Full time: 2-4
Our pick
LostUnder 3.5
Chance
80%
Fair price
1.25
Take at least
1.31
- Our models: 80%.
- Expected goals: 2.3 (Varzim 1.3, Vitória SC B 1.0).
- Fair price: 1.25. No bookmaker price yet: worth taking at 1.31 or more.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
Varzim1.33
Vitória SC B0.97
Total 2.30 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 44% | 2.30 | 2.14 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | 3.20 |
| Away win | 28% | 3.56 | 3.23 |
| Home or draw | 72% | 1.38 | – |
| Draw or away | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Home or away | 73% | 1.38 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | 1.50 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.47 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 4.97 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.68 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Both teams score | 51% | 1.96 | 1.80 |
| Not both teams score | 49% | 2.04 | 1.87 |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.